Is there a significant number that could potentially ignite Bitcoin’s next substantial bull run? According to on-chain data, if we give credence to historical patterns, that number could be $33,700. Specifically, this figure is significant not for the entire market, but for a particular segment: investors who have purchased their coins within the past six months to three years. If these past patterns have any relevance, then the Bitcoin price rising above $33,700 could be the launchpad for the next significant bull market.
Why $33,700 is a Pivotal Point for Bitcoin
On-chain data suggests that historical patterns could make $33,700 a critical level for Bitcoin. In a recent publication, analyst Ali presented a chart that could provide insights into the possible trajectory BTC might take. The crucial indicator here is the ‘realized price,’ which indicates the price at which the average Bitcoin market investor acquired their coins. When the asset’s spot price surpasses this line, it signifies that holders are generally in a net profit position with their coins. Conversely, if BTC is below this level, it suggests that the average investor is currently at a loss.
The focus of the debate is not the cost of the entire market; rather, it’s the cost of a specific segment: those who bought their coins less than six months and up to three years ago. This chart illustrates how the cost of Bitcoin investors has evolved over time:
Long-Term Holders and their Role
Investors who bought coins between six months and three years ago are part of a broader ‘long-term holder’ (LTH) group. LTHs are investors who have held their coins for at least six months. The chart includes data for the cost of the entire LTH group, which currently stands at approximately $20,300, significantly above the spot price. However, the realized price for those who bought between six months and three years ago is currently above the spot price, at around $33,755, meaning this segment of LTHs is definitively in a loss.
Bitcoin’s Destiny Could Be Shaped
It’s clear that Bitcoin’s price didn’t reach this level when the bear market initially kicked off in 2022. If the cryptocurrency can ascend towards this level and eventually retest it, its fate could be positively altered. As Ali highlights, BTC has consistently experienced significant upward movements each time it broke the cost of LTHs when these HODLers returned to profit. This pattern is clearly visible in three instances on the chart: the 2017 bull run, the April 2019 rally, and the 2021 bull run, all occurred when the cost of LTHs from six months to three years ago was successfully broken. If this historical pattern holds any weight, then Bitcoin price rising above $33,700 in the near future could trigger the start of the next major bull run.
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